Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions (2024)

The Milwaukee Brewers (36-25) hope to avoid a 3-game sweep as they take on the Philadelphia Phillies (43-19) Wednesday. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. ET (MLB.TV Free Game of the Day). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Brewers vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Phillies lead 2-0

Milwaukee lost to Philadelphia 2-1 in 10 innings Tuesday, failing to cash as a (+138) road underdog. The Brewers have mustered just 1 run in each of their losses to the Phillies, going 2-for-13 with RISP. However, their pitching has limited this outstanding Phillies lineup, registering 4 ER and 18 K’s in 19 innings.

Despite owning the best record in baseball along with the New York Yankees, Philadelphia (+270 at FanDuel Sportsbook) still sits behind the Los Angeles Dodgers (+140) as the favorite to win the National League. RHP Zack Wheeler delivered his NL-leading 10th quality start in Monday’s 3-1 win over Milwaukee, and the Phillies have won 5 of their last 6.

Brewers at Phillies projected starters

LHP Aaron Ashbyvs. RHP Aaron Nola

Ashby (0-1, 9.82 ERA) makes his 2nd start. He allowed 4 ER on 6 hits and 2 walks with 2 K’s in 3 2/3 innings in his season debut, a 10-8 loss at the Cincinnati Reds April 8.

• Last start with Triple-A Nashville: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 3 BB 5 K in 7-2 victory at Memphis Friday
• 2024 stats with Triple-A Nashville: 1-3, 6.80 ERA (43 2/3 IP, 33 ER), 1.97 WHIP, 8.9 K/9 in 9 starts and 1 relief appearance
• 2022 stats: 2-10, 4.44 ERA (107 1/3 IP, 53 ER), 1.43 WHIP, 10.6 K/9 in 19 starts and 6 relief appearances

Nola (7-2, 3.03 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.03 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 77 1/3 innings.

• Last start: Win, 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 4-2 home victory vs. St. Louis Cardinals Friday
• 2024 home stats: 3-2, 4.01 ERA (42 2/3 IP, 19 ER), 1.15 WHIP, 8.6 K/9 in 7 starts
• Possesses highest career K/9 (9.92) in franchise history

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Brewers at Phillies odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:05 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Brewers +158 (bet $100 to win $158) | Phillies -188 (bet $188 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the Spread (ATS): Brewers +1.5 (-128) | Phillies -1.5 (+106)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -118 | U: -104)

Brewers at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Brewers 2

Moneyline

Consider adding Philadelphia (-188) to a moneyline parlay.

This is too much juice to lay with Philadelphia on its own for me. However, if you’re looking to build a parlay, I suggest pairing the 2 best teams in baseball. A 2-leg parlay with Philadelphia (-188) and the Yankees (-190 at home vs. Minnesota Twins, 7:05 p.m. ET) pays out +134.

Run line/Against the Spread

BET PHILLIES -1.5 (+105).

Phillies 1B Bryce Harper has a walk and a hit in each game vs. Milwaukee this season, and he leads all qualified NL hitters in hard-hit percentage (44.9%) vs. RHP. Sure, Ashby was strong in his last minor-league outing, but that lowered his ERA at Triple-A to 6.80 in 10 appearances.

Only Atlanta Braves DH Marcell Ozuna has more RBIs (53) than Philadelphia 3B Alec Bohm(50) and Harper (44) in the NL, and Bohm leads MLB in doubles (23). Ashby had a 6.80 ERA at Triple-A, not the majors, and now he has to face this powerful Phillies lineup on short notice.

Ashby will eventually turn it over to a Brewers bullpen that has served up an NL-leading 30 HRs. There is too much working against Milwaukee here, so expect the Phils to wrap up the sweep Wednesday with a multiple-run victory.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 8.5 (-104).

Nola, who turned 31 Tuesday, saw an increase in velocity in his last start. With the Brewers offense going dormant over the last 2 games, I expect Nola to be able to work the 4-seamer effectively once again.

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